Monday 18 December 2017

Rwanda Vote a Formality With Kagame Set to Extend Presidency

Rwanda Vote a Formality With Kagame Set to Extend Presidency
(Bloomberg 08/03/17)
Rwanda Vote a Formality With Kagame Set to Extend Presidency

Paul Kagame has held an iron-clad grip on power in Rwanda since taking office 17 years ago and that’s set to remain after Friday’s presidential elections, with his victory an almost foregone conclusion.

The 59-year-old led a rebel army that ended the East African country’s 1994 genocide in which about 800,000 people died, and he’s been credited with turning Rwanda’s economy into one of the continent’s top performers by cutting red tape, improving internet access, roads and electricity supplies. Yet his detractors, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, say civil liberties have fallen by the wayside and the credibility of the vote has been compromised by a violent crackdown on his opponents -- criticisms the authorities reject.

Kagame won 93 percent of the last presidential vote in 2010 and reaffirmed his political dominance in 2015, when more than 98 percent of the 6.28 million people who cast ballots in a referendum voted in favor of a constitutional change that will enable him to stand for a third seven-year term. The amendment will also enable him to stand for two further terms of five years each, potentially enabling him to retain his post until 2034.

“Kagame will remain central in policy making in Rwanda for the foreseeable future, bar any personal health issues or other unexpected events,” said Mark Bohlund, Africa economist with Bloomberg Intelligence in London. “Investors are likely to view the high probability of policy continuity and Kagame’s developmental agenda as more important than grievances of transgressions of freedom of speech and other human rights.”

Economic Expansion

The landlocked nation’s economy has expanded an average of more than 7 percent a year since Kagame took office in 2000, and is expected to grow 6.1 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Its biggest industries and sources of foreign exchange are tea, coffee, tourism and mining. About a third of the population of 11.8 million are subsistence farmers.

In its election manifesto, the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front pledged to create jobs, partner with private companies to encourage new industry, build about 3,800 kilometers (2,361 miles) of roads and increase mineral exploration if Kagame is re-elected.

Kagame will face two challengers in the presidential race: Frank Habineza, the leader of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, who wasn’t allowed to run in the 2010 vote and fled into European exile after his deputy was killed; and Mpayimana Philippe, a former journalist with no political experience who’s standing as an independent. Three other hopefuls were barred from competing after the National Electoral Commission decreed they hadn’t complied with a requirement to collect 600 signatures supporting their candidature.

Amnesty last month urged the government to prevent harassment of opposition candidates and their supporters in the vote and also start reforms to open up political space before the 2024 elections to allow genuine debate.

About 6.8 million people have registered to cast ballots. Polls open at 7 a.m. local time and close at 3 p.m., with the electoral commission expecting to announce the winner on Friday evening. Read more at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-02/rwanda-vote-a-formali...

By Michael Cohen and Saul Butera

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